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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Allow Me To Influence You...Blog Cosby's Picks for Player Awards

Let the celebration of winners begin!

Hart Trophy: Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres
Why? I had to battle in my head between Miller and Bryzgalov, but in the end the stats said Miller played fewer games, faced significantly more shots, and maintained a higher save percentage and GAA. Now this alone doesn’t give him the win; since Bryzer has more wins, it becomes a closer battle. But I thought about the season and its highlights. Apart from Miller's stellar performance in the Olympics (which holds no bearing on my decision), he had far more highlight-reel saves than Bryzgalov, which tells me he made the extra effort to keep his team alive more often than Bryzgalov did.

The rest? One, Sedin can’t win, since they both had virtually the same points-per-game. Washington does fine without Ovie, as does the Pitts without Sid.


Vezina Trophy: Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres
Why? He wins the Hart, how can he not win the Vezina?!

Calder Trophy: Tyler Myers, Buffalo Sabres
Why? Well you may think I have a thing for Buffalo, but you’d be wrong, they just had the right crew this year. Tyler Myers at 6’8” 222lbs, is expected to play the Chara role, and as a rookie at the age of 20, it’s hard to live up to expectation. He managed to pot over 40 points (more than Chara have you) and stay above a +11, on a team that has very little actual defense, in fact I would say they have more defensive forwards than defense. I know the complaints come in when he doesn’t take loads of shots and doesn’t crunch his opponents, but those aspects will come with time, and if you can get that many points your first season as a rookie, the hard part is done.
The rest? Jimmy Howard did a great job, but being six years older and having played NHL games in three previous seasons, he had too much time to develop to where he’s at. I give props to Matt Duchene, but he didn’t quite awe me.

Jack Adams Award: Dave Tippett, Phoenix Coyotes
Why? Let’s be honest, he took a team that shouldn’t have even started the season and organized a group that is unpredictable. The consistency of the 'Yotes after injuries is possibly the most impressive.
The rest? Joe Sacco and the Avs are impressive in their own ways, but it’s also not uncommon for a group of rookies and young players to play well together. As the Avs are currently in 8th place in the West, their journey is a bit less surprising.

Norris Trophy: Mike Green, Washington Capitols
Why? The big hype for d-men this year has been reserved for Duncan Keith and Drew Doughty, but I really think Mike Green was the most outstanding of all the defensemen. He has put up as many points as he did last season but switched his focus to the defensive side of the game, despite leading all d-men in goals. I also take into consideration the other defenseman that he plays with and I don’t see a superb group (apart from the recent acquisition of Joe Corvo). He is a standout on his team (for defense) and at his age he already tops them all (though I give big credit to Doughty).

The rest? Keith has a lot of defensive talent around him to both learn from and work with, so I consider his effort great, but also a result of a good team around him. Doughty has less talent around him, but still is learning the role and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him putting up Green-like numbers in the next few seasons.

Selke Trophy: Alex Burrows, Vancouver Canucks
Why? I know everyone says his numbers are mostly the result of playing with Swedish Twins, but he did play half of the season without them, and more importantly he plays shorthanded without them and is tied for the league lead with five shorthanded goals. He has maintained a +/- over 30 and does all of this while picking up 100+ PIMS. In addition to those numbers he has almost 70 takeaways, and only 20 giveaways.

Masterton Trophy: Tim Connolly, Buffalo Sabres
Why? Ok, now you really think I’m a Sabres fan. I chose Connolly because he surprised everyone. I’m not talking about his point totals because they are no surprise; I’m talking about playing most of the season! Since the lockout this guy has struggled with injuries, playing a total 161 games over four seasons (that’s out of a possible 328 games!). Connolly suffered from post-concussion syndrome from two different hits over those four seasons; to come out on top this season shows his perseverance in the game of hockey. Many players have made a return after a multiple-season injury, but most of them don’t produce the same as they did before.

And now for my personally created award...

Clarke Award: Chris Stewart, Colorado Avalanche
Why? (Should be) given annually to the player who isn’t afraid to fight for his team while being a vital component to the scoreboard. Stewart has neared a point-per-game this season, and even though he’s not breaking 100 PIMS, he will get into a fight, even with a goon. He has fought 7 times, many of them in the later part of the season. Players like Stewart (Getzlaf, Richards, and Backes, too) are more than valuable players. These guys contribute not only through raw talent, but through intimidation of their opponents. They show they have the grit to do what they need to do and nothing will get in their way (apart from the occasional sprained ankle...ahem...Getzlaf).

Sunday, March 28, 2010

NHL Power Rankin's (week of 3/29/10)

Hello, sports fans. And welcome to another edition of the Power Rankin's!

Alright, raise your hand if you didn't see this coming - I'm talking, of course, about the Detroit Red Wings and their late season burst. They miss out on this week's Big Mover award to Ottawa (up 6 spots to Detroit's 5), but breaking the Top 5 after languishing out of the playoffs through much of the year is worth top billing in this forum.

In the East, it's tough to tell whether anyone really wants the 8th and final playoff berth. Considering that team is now assured of playing Washington in the first round, I don't know that I can blame any of them (Philly, Boston, Atlanta, or Montreal). Boston is the only team that moved up in the Rankin's this week, though, so I'll give them the blog-label recognition.

We're coming down to it, folks. Two weeks left, and only nine playoff spots left (8, if you put Washington through to the second round right now...).

Also, don't forget to vote for your trophy winners on the Bettman's Nightmare homepage!

1) (1) Phoenix
2) (2) Washington
3) (7) San Jose
4) (4) Nashville
5) (10) Detroit
6) (3) Chicago
7) (8) Buffalo
8) (5) Vancouver
9) (6) Los Angeles
10) (9) Colorado
11) (11) Pittsburgh
12) (12) New Jersey
13) (13) Calgary
14) (16) St. Louis
15) (21) Ottawa
16) (15) Anaheim
17) (20) Boston
18) (14) Montreal
19) (19) Dallas
20) (17) Philadelphia
21) (18) Atlanta
22) (22) Minnesota
23) (23) NY Rangers
24) (24) Florida
25) (26) NY Islanders
26) (25) Carolina
27) (27) Columbus
28) (28) Tampa Bay
29) (29) Edmonton
30) (30) Toronto

Sunday, March 21, 2010

NHL Power Rankin's (week of 3/22/10)

Its officially no longer a fluke, ladies and gentlemen (and Flyers fans): The Phoenix Coyotes are for real. For the 2nd straight week, the bane of hockey purists' existence stand atop the completely objective NHL Power Rankin's. They do so convincingly, as well, as the 'yotes rank no lower than 5th out of 30 teams in any of the 5 component indices comprising the Rankin's. Phoenix is on a 9 game winning streak, they lead the Pacific division with less than a dozen games remaining, they continue to win even as the pressure ratchets up as we approach the playoffs, and it is this observer's opinion that they have some of the best goaltending in the game. I'm not picking them to win the West yet, but if they get the right draw...

Nashville (another of those darned Gary Bettman plants designed to destroy Olde Tyme Hockey), takes home this week's Big Mover award, vaulting into the top 5 at #4 - up from 10th spot a week ago. Nashville just beat out their downside counterpart, Ottawa, who slid 5 spots during the week to number 21. Things are not going well in the capital.

Atlanta is also on the move after a home-and-home sweep against the Flyers and their problem-laden netminding condition. It was right before the Olympic break that my models had Atlanta stealing the 8th spot in the East. With Montreal playing well these days, I would pull things together quick if I were Boston & Philly.

1) (1) Phoenix
2) (2) Washington
3) (3) Chicago
4) (10) Nashville
5) (6) Vancouver
6) (5) Los Angeles
7) (4) San Jose
8) (9) Buffalo
9) (7) Colorado
10) (11) Detroit
11) (8) Pittsburgh
12) (12) New Jersey
13) (13) Calgary
14) (17) Montreal
15) (18) Anaheim
16) (15) St. Louis
17) (14) Philadelphia
18) (23) Atlanta
19) (21) Dallas
20) (19) Boston
21) (16) Ottawa
22) (20) Minnesota
23) (23) NY Rangers
24) (24) Florida
25) (25) Carolina
26) (26) NY Islanders
27) (28) Columbus
28) (27) Tampa Bay
29) (29) Edmonton
30) (30) Toronto

Friday, March 19, 2010

Quote of the Day

"[I]f we started to work together, we could do it. Instead, you schmucks just want to argue about elbow position and shit like that."

- Weagz, 3/19/10 (on the Wisniewski hit and debate about its consequences)

Monday, March 15, 2010

Boudreau's Glass is Spiked

It should not be surprising that Bruce Boudreau did his best to come off as being shocked that Alexander Ovechkin could possibly be suspended for his filthy shove of Brian Campbell on Sunday. However, if he thinks the following statement is warranted, then his serving of the Ovechkin Kool Aid is spiked:

"Alex is so much stronger than everyone else. So we're penalizing him for being strong."

Ovechkin is indeed big. He's strong, and he's intense. I know Boudreau is excited about the upcoming Clash of the Titans release, but his characterization of Ovechkin as Perseus is just embarrassing.

Initially, I had actually thought that beyond the prospect of a mandatory suspension due to his repeat-offender status (3 Game Misconduct strikes), Ovechkin shouldn't have suffered supplementary discipline for his dirty tactics this time around - the 5-minute major sufficed, in my view. However, Boudreau's statement above has so enraged me on the matter that I can no longer manage to maintain any objectivity.

Good riddance. Ovechkin is as filthy as they come.

You want to do your opponents some bodily harm? How about this for a starting 5:

Center: Mike Richards
Left Wing: Alexander Ovechkin
Right Wing: Todd Bertuzzi
Defense: Chris Pronger
Defense: Andy Sutton

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Power Rankin's (week of 3/15/10)

There's really no easy way to put this: The Phoenix Coyotes stand alone atop the Power Rankin's.

As the results rolled in throughout the week, and Phoenix maintained their current 5-game winning streak including another shutout win (their 2nd in 4 games), I kept trying to figure out a way to break the news to all the hockey purists who hate the idea of ice hockey being played below the Mason-Dixon Line. The best I could come up with was that Gary Bettman has had this planned all along.

"This is a conspiracy, that's what this is. One. Big. Damn. Conspiracy!"

I figured that I could at least sell this line to Philadelphia phans, who know deep in their collective soul (Glo') that the whole goshdarned thing is one big conspiracy to keep them from celebrating a Stanley Cup homecoming 30 years in the making (well... 34 now going on 35, actually).

Yes, the NHL Power Rankin's have succumbed, and now do the bidding of Gary Bettman and his hatred of the City of Brotherly Love!

Mwahahaha. MWAHAHAHAHA. HA HA HA HA HA!!!!

Just kidding. Its all completely numbers-based, dude. And no, there are no dummy variables involved where 1 = Black & Gold and 0 = Orange & Black.

On a lighter note, be mindful of Montreal's place in the Rankin's. While the Habs have a 5-game winning streak of their own going, and currently hold down a playoff spot, they lie at #17 in the NHL Power Rankin's (i.e., just outside the magical 53.33% of NHL teams that make the post-season each year). Similarly - but in reverse - St. Louis is on this inside looking out, if you will (#15 but 5-points out of the West's 8th seed).

P.S. - The Power Rankin's has Pittsburgh beating Purdue in the NCAA tournament. Remember, you heard it here first.

1) (2) Phoenix
2) (1) Washington
3) (4) Chicago
4) (3) San Jose
5) (5) Los Angeles
6) (8) Vancouver
7) (6) Colorado
8) (7) Pittsburgh
9) (9) Buffalo
10) (12) Nashville
11) (10) Detroit
12) (11) New Jersey
13) (14) Calgary
14) (13) Philadelphia
15) (16) St. Louis
16) (15) Ottawa
17) (18) Montreal
18) (17) Anaheim
19) (19) Boston
20) (21) Minnesota
21) (20) Dallas
22) (23) NY Rangers
23) (22) Atlanta
24) (24) Florida
25) (25) Carolina
26) (27) NY Islanders
27) (26) Tampa Bay
28) (29) Columbus
29) (28) Edmonton
30) (30) Toronto

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Power Rankin's (week of 3/8/10)

The Olympics are over. The trade deadline is passed. Each team now has fewer than 20 games remaining. It's the stretch run, and the NHL Power Rankin's are here to light the way!

First off, I would like to thank Gary Bettman, the International Olympic Committee, the Trilateral Commission, the Heads of the Five Families, the Freemasons, the chief military commander at Area 51, and the Wizard of Oz for manipulating the goings-on of the hockey world during the past week in order to allow the Pittsburgh Penguins to take home this week's Big Mover award. The Pens are four-and-oh coming out of the Olympic break, Sidney Crosby is the current leader in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy, and Alexei 'The Ukraine Train' Ponikarovsky (thanks, Steigey) is in Steeltahn generating mayhem in front of the net. I'd still take Washington to win a playoff series against Pittsburgh, but it won't be in four games straight.

On the flip side, Buffalo and New Jersey continue to fade in the Rankin's. Both team rank in the bottom five in terms of remaining strength of schedule, however, and both teams are facing serious challenges for their respective division titles. Their places in the Power Rankin's will tell the tale of how well they handle the pressure over these last few weeks of the season.

1) (1) Washington
2) (3) Phoenix
3) (2) San Jose
4) (5) Chicago
5) (6) Los Angeles
6) (4) Colorado
7) (14) Pittsburgh
8) (9) Vancouver
9) (7) Buffalo
10) (13) Detroit
11) (8) New Jersey
12) (11) Nashville
13) (12) Philadelphia
14) (15) Calgary
15) (10) Ottawa
16) (18) St. Louis
17) (16) Anaheim
18) (21) Montreal
19) (19) Boston
20) (17) Dallas
21) (20) Minnesota
22) (22) Atlanta
23) (23) NY Rangers
24) (25) Florida
25) (28) Carolina
26) (24) Tampa Bay
27) (26) NY Islanders
28) (29) Edmonton
29) (27) Columbus
30) (30) Toronto

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Trade Deadline - Yay! or Nay?

The NHL trade deadline is here! Soon, GM's will be throwing around draft picks faster than the Epic Beard Man throws punches. Some fans seem to love the deadline, and they are perfectly fine with throwing away draft picks for the chance at a cup. Other fans dread that the quick trigger finger of their GM will result in the team losing out on the next Pavel Datsyuk.

Even Epic Beard Man gets riled up at the deadline



Here at Bettman's Nightmare, we sought to answer some important questions about draft picks.  How valuable are draft picks, really?  And what is the relative value of picks by round?

Draft pick data were compliled from 1997 to 2006, giving 10 years of data. Drafts before 1997 were excluded because we wanted data most relevant to today's NHL (read: most relevant to ice dancing, diving, and all other favorites of our good friend Gary). Drafts after 2006 were excluded because there hasn't been enough time to fairly evaluate those players.

Two outcomes were assessed: number of players to play 50 games (25 for goalies) per round, and number of players to play 100 games (50 for goalies) per round. All data were compiled from hockeydb.com, and it looks like they don't update their stats until the end of the season. As a result, stats from this season are excluded.


A few things are noteworthy from the graphs. Not surprisingly, the chances of drafting an NHL regular decrease as rounds progress. Chances are fairly good in the first round, while the later rounds appear to be a crap shoot. In fact, there are two substantial drops in the data: after the 1st round and after the 3rd round (especially under the 100 game criteria). There doesn't appear to be much of a difference at all when drafting from the 4th round compared to the 7th (or 8th or 9th for that matter).

Chances are, 1st round picks are going to land you an NHL regular (about a 60% chance you'll draft someone who will log at least 100 games). One problem here is that teams may be more likely to give high picks a chance to play, and then after a while they give up on them and they become busts. Patrick Stefan come to mind?

Second and third round picks are decent, yielding a 25% and 20% chance, respectively, of landing an NHL regular.

From these data, it doesn't look like 4th round picks and later are worth much at all. You only have about a 10% chance of drafting someone who will log at least 100 games.

Finally, I was surprised with how consistent results were from year to year. More recent draft years have some catching up to do in the later rounds, but on the whole, results were consistent.

So, when your GM gives up a 2nd rounder today for Andrew Cogliano, how will you react? If you're playing the odds, I say keep your first rounders if possible. The rest of 'em? Over-rated. Now, I'm not suggesting that GM's trade away all of their picks. Obviously, the chances of landing a valuable player increase the more opportunities you get to draft. What I am saying is that if a 2nd rounder gets you a top 6 winger, why not do it?

Next, we'll be looking at how career point totals vary across draft rounds, which will give a better indication of the type of player you're likely to land across rounds. Until then, happy trade deadline!

P.S.  Click on the charts for a larger view.  - Matteau
P.P.S.  Here are the complete NHL Drafts from 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, & 2006.  - Matteau, also

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

"Ding, ding."

Hello sports fans, and welcome back to the wonderful world of NHL hockey!

Thanks to the NHL's Center Ice package being aired free for the next week, I was able to watch the Pens/Sabres game on Tuesday night. And during that game, I saw a fight that I was completely in favor of.

Yes, Philly phans (you know who you are), you heard that right. Please take a moment to catch your breath and pick your jaws off the floor before reading on.

The fight was between Mike Rupp and Paul Gaustad. I'm not lauding Rupp's beatdown of a guy who is not himself a fighter (and frankly, it was a beatdown). Rather, I was able to appreciate the reasoning behind the fight, and try as I might, I couldn't argue against it.

It was about midway through the third period. Buffalo was down by a goal, having scored a goal a few minutes earlier. Buffalo was coming hard trying to tie things up. The Sabres put a puck on the Pens netminder, Brent Johnson (Fleury had the night off after his exhausting effort in Vancouver).

Now, here's the point of it all. The shot came from about the right faceoff dot in the Pens' zone, and no Sabres were around the net before the whistle blew after Johnson gloved down the shot. But Gaustad, as often happens, crashed the net. However, as I said, the whistle blew well before he got there. Rupp put a forearm up to Gaustad's chest - again, a normal move - but Gaustad seemed intent on continuing on his path toward Johnson, so Rupp moved from blocking position to actually pushing Gaustad out away from the crease. I think there were then some words exchanged, and then the gloves dropped mutually and Rupp landed several right crosses to Gaustad's noggin.

In what we will call the Bettman's Nightmare "production meetings," I have made my position clear many a time regarding the netminder's right to his personal space - this is the primary reason I despise Scott 'Soul Glo' Hartnell. So, having made such a blatent attempt to get in Brent Johnson's kitchen, I offer here my first ringing endorsement of a fight during a professional ice hockey game.

---

FYI, I was planning on writing a blog this evening warning yinz guys not to be surprised if Jarome Iginla were to be traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins, a la Boston sending Ray Bourque to Colorado so that he could win a championship before retiring (the Flames are doomed as long as they have the choke artist Kiprusoff in net, which looks to be indefitely).

But then I thought better of it. While Iginla has no shot while in Calgary, he's got a ways to go before the fine people running Alberta's transplant franchise send Iginla off into the sunset of a true contender's roster - despite how well he worked with Crosby during the Olympics.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Mr. February

This month goes to you Olli Jokinen!

(Actual expression when I told him he had won.)