Mr. October

Mike Brown

This 'stache is of the Fu-Manchu variety which "auto-magically" yields the power to intimidate upon sight. The thickness and density show dedication and resilience. This particular formation of the Fu-Manchu however, is also quite symbolic to the game of hockey. The handlebars are a representation of the goal, which is the case for almost any Fu-Manchu in the game of hockey, but this one is unique by implying a goal. The simple addition of the soul patch completes the effect Brown was going for: if you see this 'stache, I just scored. Renamed: The Goal-Manchu.

Rypien Him a New One

Rick Rypien needs to be suspended for the rest of the season. Period.

Rick Rypien, if you're that upset that you're can't hang with the rest of the goons in the league - but also that your hockey-relevant skills are utterly sub-par - that you have to attack a fan that is SIMPLY CLAPPING that your sorry excuse for talent is being removed from the game, you have no place on the ice.

This is Todd Bertuzzi disgusting. Its not as violent as Todd Bertuzzi, but it is just as stomach-turning and game-tarnishing. Rick Rypien, if you want to attack the fans, grow about 9 inches and I'm sure The King will be glad to have your act on board his circus down in Southeast Miami.

... but wait, another thought just occurred to me. I've heard of this thing called "'roid rage." Maybe Rick Rypien and Alexander Ovechkin have the same hookup. Hmm... Nah, Rypien's not good enough to be suspected of being on the juice. He's just a whiny little [expletive deleted] that got his [expletive deleted] beat and felt the need to unleash his frustration elsewhere.

Once again, fighting reveals its true value to the game of hockey.

NHL Preview: Northeast Division Defense

Boston Bruins
Defensemen
Zdeno Chara - Andrew Ference
Dennis Seidenberg - Mark Stuart
Johnny Boychuk - Matt Hunwick

Goaltender
Tuuka Rask - Tim Thomas

This is the most consistent set of blueliners in an otherwise rather deep crop of Northeast defensemen. I gave the edge to Boston because Chara will be a Norris candidate, while Toronto has a few guys that might be and Tyler Myers may be some day. Additionally, Rask played very solidly as a young goalie and if he suffers a slump, the Bruins have a Vezina Trophy winner keeping the bench warm.

Buffalo Sabres
Defensemen
Tyler Meyers - Shaone Morrison
Jordan Leopold - Steve Montador
Andrej Sekera - Craig Rivet

Goaltender
Ryan Miller - Patrick Lalime

Tyler Myers is a young, up-and-coming stud and will likely be a Norris Trophy candidate some day. The only reason I don't have the Sabres up higher is because we have only seen one season of young Tyler. The other guys are very solid -- Morrison, Leopold, Montador, Sekera, and Rivet aren't going to hurt the Sabres.

That said, the Sabres have the best goalie in the division -- and one of the best in the NHL in Sparty the Goalie. The returning Vezina Trophy winner has a steady blueline in front of him. Expect another fantastic year from Sparty -- and keep an eye on Myers.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Defensemen
Tomas Kaberle - Dion Phaneuf
Mike Komisarek - Luke Schenn
Francois Beauchemin - Jeff Finger

Goaltender
Jean-Sebastien Giguere - Jonas Gustavsson

Toronto is starting to put together a very respectable team on the blueline and are decent in net. They should start to shut some teams down with these respectable defensive pairings and if Phaneuf and Schenn can find the game that they are capable of playing, this team could be very scary in the back -- and that's even with Jeff Finger on the team!
Note: Finger has been since waived.

Giggy and the Monster are both capable goalies who have even more upside. If either of these guys find their games, the Maple Leafs may have the most stout defense in the Northeast. However, if neither of these guys find their game (or injuries linger for the Monster), this could be a very bad team, especially without much scoring up top.

Montreal Canadiens
Defensemen
Jaroslav Spacek - Roman Hamrlik
Josh Gorges - P.K. Subban
Hal Gill - Ryan O'Byrne

Goaltender
Carey Price - Alex Auld

The Candiens defense is pretty respectable. P.K. Subban is an interesting blueliner. He's young with a rocket of a slap shot and could be a stud waiting in the wings. Hal Gill is Hal Gill, which really isn't all that bad for a third-pair guy. Spacek and Hamrlik have been top-pair guys for quite a while.

Now we get to the netminding situation. Umm.... Hmm... Yeah... Carey Price is apparently the man again in Montreal, and he needn't worry about Jaroslav Halak taking his net from him -- not from St. Louis. As a Carey Price fan, this must make you incredibly enthusiastic. As a Montreal Canadiens fan, this must make you incredibly worried. Price is going to get his shot...again. If not, I guess Alex Auld is okay -- nah, not so much. Price better man up.

Ottawa Senators
Defensemen
Sergei Gonchar - Chris Phillips
Chris Campoli - Matt Carkner
Erik Karlsson - Brian Lee

Goaltender
Brian Elliott - Pascal Leclaire

The Senators goaltending and blueline situation is just as precarious as the Canadiens goaltending situation. Gonchar is awesome if this were 1998 and you were in a bet with your best buddy that a Senators blueliner wouldn't add 20 power play goals this season. A more respectable bet might be Gonchar going minus-15 this season, though Chris Phillips is a respectable pairing for him.

In net, Brian Elliott might as well be Billy Elliott and Pascal Leclaire has a lot of questions to answer.

Northeast Division Defense Rankings
1. Boston Bruins
2. Buffalo Sabres
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Montreal Canadiens
5. Ottawa Senators

The Pens' Net Outcome

The Scene: I'm sitting in my living room, wearing my baby-blue Marc-Andre Fleury jersey, watching (with great satisfaction) Simon Gagne come 'home' to Philly and beat the Phlyers 3-2.

The Situation: Marc-Andre Fleury will sit for Friday night's game against the New York Islanders, and quite possibly - according to a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report on Thursday - for Saturday's tilt against the hated Phlyers.

I'm here to tell you that this is not a long-term problem. Pittsburgh fans, for some reason, go all Philadelphia when it comes to Marc-Andre Fleury. They look for problems no matter what when it comes to the Pens' netminder. I can't think of another Pittsburgh sports figure that has drawn this much active searching for criticism since maybe Kordell Stewart. But, like (the original) Slash, Fleury has done his best to earn Pittsburgh fans' ire in the early stages of this year.

Despite his slow start, I maintain that this is the transition year for Fleury. He's already shown his ability to come up enormous when it matters most. But, while my BN colleague Weagz' pointed out earlier today that Fleury should already be "grown up," I think this year's growing pains are intended - they are being prompted by the Pens' front office and coaching staff because Fleury clearly has more potential than he is living up to at present.

Everyone knows that goaltenders are odd creatures. They are said to mature into their true selves as they get closer to age 30. Fleury, at age 25, is getting there, but has also been a starter from a very early age. Now, the guys paying the bills have put the pressure on him to lift his game. He's changed his practice and gameday regimens in response, and his relationship with goaltending coach Gilles Meloche has been tweaked. All of this change is bound to wreck havoc on even the sturdiest-minded netminder (a contradiction in terms, I know). The point, though, is that by early December, Marc-Andre Fleury will emerge a stronger presence between the pipes, and then look 'aht, Atlantic Division!

My Philadelphia phan counterparts can attest to my "tolerance" of Marc-Andre Fleury to this point. I have been on record for the past several years for combining Fleury's potential and skill with his inconsistency, pretty much guaranteeing that if he were to give up one goal, he'd give up four. It has been either a shutout level of play, or something that leaves Pens fans thanking the hockey deities for a high-powered offense to overcome his play (especially his playing of the puck behind the net).

So, remember. You heard it hear first. Fleury's (apparent) benching is not unexpected by this Pens fan. But neither will his second-half dominance be a shock to me. Marc-Andre Fleury will be this year's Conn-Smythe Award winner.

Note:  I'm adding some graphics for Rankin's argument.  Cam Ward, a goalie many agree has played well for the Hurricanes, is a useful comparison for Fleury because they both became regulars at roughly the same time.  The save percentages shown are split between even-strength and penalty-kill save percentages.  The win percentages are of games started during this period.  Click on the pictures for larger/clearer images.  --- Matteau

Kinda Preseason Predictions

Well, it’s time once again (at least it was last week) to make our ridiculous predictions for this season’s preseason prediction. Being the stout hockey observer that you obviously are, you can tell that the season has already started. Ya know what, I’m working with a bunch of monkeys here--so it took me a while to compile this half-cooked predictions. All predictions are based on equal parts hockey insight and homerism. It should be noted that all predictions were made during week 1. Thus, MTWRA wanted to make it abundantly clear to you guys that his Toronto prediction was made when they were 0-0, not 3-0. I, personally, really like the Leafs chances to win at least 4 games this year.

Regular Season

There are some consistent themes in our regular season predictions (VERY FEW). But, we have all made similar observations.

· We all have the Washington Capitals as the top seed in the East

· We all have the Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers, and Pittsburgh Penguins in the playoffs, though not all of us agree that each team is going to win their division.

· We all have the Atlanta Thrashers, Florida Panthers, and New York Islanders missing the playoffs.

· We all have the San Jose Sharks winning the Pacific Division (although not all of us agree that they will earn the top seed out west).

· We all agree that the Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, Detroit Red Wings, Phoenix Coyotes, and Vancouver Canucks will make the playoffs, although the position to which they place is very much in the air.

· We all agree that the Columbus Blue Jackets, Edmonton Oilers, and Minnesota Wild will not make the playoffs.

Note: Click on the photos to see an enlarged version.

This means that we all see the last few playoff spots shaking out this way.

· In the East, the Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs will be battling it out for 4 playoff spots. Based on a weighted ranking of places, the four gurus of Bettman’s Nightmare expect the New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Carolina Hurricanes to fill these four spots.

· In the West, the Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, and St. Louis Blues will be battling it out for 2 playoff spots. Based on a weighted ranking of places, the four gurus of Bettman’s Nightmare expect the Los Angeles Kings, and the St. Louis Blues to fill these two spots.

Postseason:

The only real consistent theme is that two of our gurus expect the Colorado Avalanche to win the west, but lose to their eastern conference counterpart. Our gurus see any of the following teams winning the east: New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Toronto Maple Leafs. Out west, our gurus like the aforementioned Colorado Avalanche, the San Jose Sharks, and the Vancouver Canucks.

Awards:

In keeping with the cooperation that is Bettman’s Nightmare--none of us see the post-season awards shaking out the same way.

Stanley Cup: New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and San Jose Sharks

President’s Cup: Washington Capitals (4)

Hart Trophy: Alexander Ovechkin (2), Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos

Vezina Trophy: Craig Anderson, Ilya Bryzgalov, Roberto Luongo, and Ryan Miller

Norris Trophy: Drew Doughty, Christian Ehrhoff, Mike Green, Chris Pronger

Calder Trophy: Sergei Bobrovsky, John Carlson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Seguin

Selke Trophy: Pavel Datsyuk, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Joe Thornton

Adams Trophy: Joe Sacco (2), Guy Boucher, Ron Wilson

Conn Smythe Trophy: Marc-Andre Fleury, Claude Giroux, Zach Parise, Joe Pavelski

Individual Picks (click on photo to enlarge):

NHL Preview: Pacific Division

The NHL’s Pacific Division is two years into the reign of the San Jose Sharks. From where I sit, this has no chance of changing in the 2010-2011 season. While the Division on the whole will be more competitive than in years passed—perhaps even generating four of eight playoff spots in the West—San Jose will have little competition for its top spot.


The big question for San Jose this year will be leadership. The “C” remains unassigned for the Sharks. I suspect that Joe Thornton will resume the post he once held in Boston. But then, given Jumbo Joe’s tendency to disappear come the post-season, my suggestion that the team will lack leadership is given that much more weight. The Sharks are as talented a group as they come, and they upgraded their goaltending in the offseason by bringing in Antti Niemi. But the best they seem capable of is baby steps during their perennial visits to the playoffs. True to this template, maybe I’ll give them a 7-game loss in the West Finals this season.

Finishing second for the 2010-2011 season, we will have the no-longer-surprising Phoenix Coyotes. The Desert Dogs have the netminding to carry a sub-par offensive team to a run at the preseason, as Ilya Bryzgalov did with Phoenix’s 2.57 goals scored per game last year. The Coyotes’ addition of scoring winger Ray Whitney for this year should help the offensive effort, though. Outside of San Jose, the Pacific Division simply does not boast enough offensive firepower to knock Phoenix from its newfound success.

On the strength of goaltending, I’m going to take the Anaheim Ducks to move up to third place in the Pacific after missing the playoffs last year. Jonas Hiller had a solid 2008-2009 season in his first shot at significant NHL playing time, and had an even more impressive run in the post-season that year. With last year came the Olympics, and Hiller’s mind would likely have been a bit scattered as he represented his native Switzerland in international play (and we all know what slaves them goaltenders are to habit and routine). Look for Hiller to have a strong year in 2010-2011, with the help of newly signed Andy “Big & Filthy” Sutton and Paul Mara playing in front of him on the blue line.

Because Dallas is looking more and more like a candidate for the NHL’s upcoming European expansion, we have the Los Angeles Kings placing fourth in the Pacific for 2010-2011. I’m not sold on Jonathan Quick as a “bull by the horns” type of netminder. And neither does Anze Kopitar seem like he is every going to emerge as a truly reliable scoring threat. The Kings may well compete for a playoff spot again this year, but I think it is just as likely that they sink back into relative hockey obscurity by the end of the coming season.

Which leaves only Dallas to round out the Pacific. The Stars bring nothing to the table offensively, and they are chock full of backup goaltenders to start the season. I’m thinking sub-500 for Dallas in 2010-2011.

NHL Preview: Central Division Forwards

Ahh, the Central Division. Home of the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks. I just puked all over my new Hextall t-shirt.

Chicago Blackhawks
Tomas Kopecky - Jonathan Toews - Marian Hossa
Troy Brouwer - Patrick Sharp - Patrick Kane
Viktor Stalberg - Dave Bolland - Fernando Pisani
Bryan Bickell - Jake Dowell - Jack Skille

While the "core" group of forwards remains for the defending champs, we saw plenty of departures up front from this group over the summer. Specifically, the Hawks come into this season without the services of Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg, Andrew Ladd, John Madden, Ben Eager, Colin Fraser, and Adam Burish. Hmm, who's left to call Pronger funny names? Despite these departures, the Blackhawks are dangerous up front. Toews and Kane lead the way in this department with Sharp and Hossa rounding out most of the scoring. Two guys that are going to have to step it up this year are Troy Brouwer and Dave Bolland. Brouwer put up a decent regular season last year (40 points), while Bolland got hot during the playoffs (16 points in 22 games). It looks like there's a void for a scoring winger on that 2nd line. Overall, this is still a dangerous group of forwards but they lack depth compared to last season.

Columbus Blue Jackets
Kristian Huselius - Antoine Vermette - Rick Nash
Nikita Filatov - Derick Brassard - Jakub Voracek
Ethan Moreau - Samuel Pahlsson - R. J. Umberger
Jared Boll - Andrew Murray - Chris Clark

While Antoine Vermette and Kristian Huselius had good statistical years last season (27G, 38A and 23G, 40A, respectively), I can't help but look at this lineup and think once again that Rick Nash doesn't have an adequate supporting cast around him. What would prove me wrong? Well, there are plenty of young developing forwards in the top 6 here, so one could always play the "potential" card. For example, 3rd-year man Jakub Voracek looks to improve on a 50-point campaign last year while leading what is a young and talented 2nd line. R.J. Umberger will likely be moved around a bit throughout this lineup. He's a guy who can fill in on top-line duty if needed, provide secondary scoring on a 2nd line, or be in more of a defensive checking role on the 3rd line. Long-time Oiler Ethan Moreau will provide a veteran presence to this lineup. Overall, we can expect this group to perform similarly to last year's group, unless the young forwards develop faster than expected. Columbus fans should just be happy that the Fat Man didn't eat Nikita Filatov before his departure.

This burger could have been Nikita Filatov.

Detroit Red Wings
Henrik Zetterberg - Pavel Datsyuk - Tomas Holmstrom
Johan Franzen -Valtteri Filppula - Todd Bertuzzi
Dan Cleary - Mike Modano - Jiri Hudler
Patrick Eaves - Kris Draper - Darren Helm

I know that our resident editor hates the Red Wings, but it's hard to look at this lineup and not be at least a little intrigued. Coach Babcock has the freedom to mix and match throughout this entire lineup, and he probably will. It remains to be seen how much gas is left in the tank for newcomer Mike Modano (prediction: not much), but that won't matter very much. The Red Wings got Jiri Hudler back from the KHL, where he had a point-a-game campaign last year. The guy still looks like a mutant, though. Overall, this is a group with plenty of scoring ability, well-roundedness, and depth, and Matteau hates that.

Nashville Predators
Steve Sullivan - Cal O'Reilly - Patric Hornqvist
Colin Wilson - Matthew Lombardi - Martin Erat
J.P. Dumont - David Legwand - Joel Ward
Sergei Kostitsyn - Marcel Goc - Jordin Tootoo

Let's be clear about this lineup: I hate it. They don't have a legit first line, the middle of the lineup seems disjointed, and there's a Kostitsyn on the 4th line. But, let's also be clear about the fact that Barry Trotz will prove me wrong by once again making due with a mediocre group, waving his magic wand, and allowing this team to be competitive. Realistically, this isn't a group that's going to score a ton of goals. They were 18th in goals scored last year, and I don't see many reasons to think that will improve. However, they might get decent scoring support throughout the lineup, but the strength of their team clearly lies outside of the forward department.

St. Louis Blues
T.J. Oshie - Andy McDonald - Patrik Berglund
David Perron - David Backes - Brad Boyes
Alex Steen - Jay McClement - B. J. Crombeen
Brad Winchester - Vladimir Sobotka - Cam Janssen

Warning: here's where my bias will be apparent. Whenever you have a guy tell the media that in preparation for the Olympics, he's trying to fight every Canadian from the Olympic roster he can, that guy jumps to "elite" status. I don't care if David Backes finishes with 4 goals and 8 assists this year. He's awesome. He'll be joined by T.J. Oshie, a scrappy little guy who will look to improve upon a 18G, 30A 2nd year. Brad Boyes had a disappointing season last year compared to his previous 2 seasons of 33 and 43 goals. He'll need to have a rebound season to help along youngsters Patrik Berglund and David Perron. One acquisition I like is Vladimir Sobotka. He was fiesty for the Bruins in the playoffs last year, and I think his rough upbringing along the docks in Baltimore will do him well in the NHL. Overall, this is still a young group that has some growing to do. But, if the pieces come together, they might surprise some people.

Central Division Forward Rankings
1. Detroit Red Wings
2. Chicago Blackhawks
3. St. Louis Blues
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
5. Nashville Predators

NHL Preview: Northeast Division Forwards

Note: The above pic is my creation, not Weagz's, so don't blame him.  - Matteau


Toronto Maple Leafs

Kris Versteeg - Tyler Bozak - Phil Kessel

Nikolai Kulemin - Mikhail Grabovski - Colby Armstrong

Luca Caputi - John Mitchell - Fredrik Sjostrom

Mike Brown - Christian Hanson - Colton Orr

I gotta confess: I am a huge fan of the moves that front offices make and how they structure a team. I don’t know why it is, but I guess I think that success starts at the top. When the Maple Leafs named Burke their GM in 2008, I said to my friends--well, “our fun in the sun is over, we will not be able to laugh at how bad the Leafs are much longer…” Well, we’re still waiting, aren’t we? I would have thought that the Leafs forwards three years into the Burke experiment would look something like this…

Jagr - Gretzky - Hull

Bossy - Lemieux - Selanne

Kurri - Messier - Dionne

Nieuwendyk - Forsberg - Ciccarelli

By the way, in my bizarre world, Brian Burke also has superpowers. Yet, instead, we get Phil Kessel, some young guys, and a bunch of brutes.

Tyler Bozak is the most interesting of the young guys, putting up 27 points in 37 games last year and placing him alongside Kessel will obviously help to bring him along, but I’m not sure how well this line will do on the road against some of the big defensive pairings in this conference (Chara - Seidenberg; Myers - Leopold; Markov - Gorges). Versteeg is an interesting add to this team, but he does not scream “top-line scoring” guy to me.

On the second line, Kulemin is another young guy that might come into his own, but Grabovski and Armstrong are not really consistent scorers--this isn’t really a second line that’s going to pitch in that much. Caputi and Mitchell are too young to assess and Fredrik Sjostrom is well, a third-liner for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Colton Orr? Christian Hanson? Really? Come on Burke! The first line is an average second line for a decent team. The second line is an average third line for most teams. The third line is a fourth line for most teams and the fourth line doesn’t belong in hockey.

How much longer do we have to wait, Burke? Hockey needs the Toronto Maple Leafs to be relevant--and this group ain’t doin’ it.

Montreal Canadiens

Mike Cammalleri - Scott Gomez - Brian Gionta

Travis Moen - Tomas Plekanec - Andrei Kostitsyn

Tom Pyatt - Lars Eller - Maxim Lapierre

Benoit Pouliot - Jeff Halpern - Mathieu Darche

The Canadiens are an interesting group--at first glance you have to be somewhat impressed, especially since the Habs are about defense and goaltending, they do not need to roll four scoring lines. They appear to have a really nice top line; Cammalleri can do some damage, Gomez is a stud, and Gionta scored 48 goals. That’s when you start to pull back the covers on this thing. Gionta hasn’t gotten anywhere near 48 goals since 2005-06 and Gomez is a 6% shooter, folks. The second line is Travis Moen (huh? Who?), Andrei Kostitsyn, and Tomas Plekanec--admittedly, I’m impressed with Plekanec’s 70 points last year and 20 goals in each of the last five years. Yet, one man does not a line make. Then it gets dicey. Tom Pyatt, Lars Eller, Maxim Lapierre, Benoit Pouliot, Jeff Halpern, and Mathieu Darche are steady defensive-forwards, but let’s not expect more than a handful of goals from these guys.

I like some of the pieces for the Habs; Cammalleri and Plekanec are gamers, Gomez and Gionta are still riding off the coattails of the Devils success early in their career, Andrei Kostitsyn isn’t in prison--so that’s something. The rest of these guys--I just don’t see it.

Ottawa Senators

Milan Michalek - Jason Spezza - Daniel Alfredsson

Peter Regin - Mike Fisher - Alexei Kovalev

Nick Foligno - Chris Kelly - Chris Neil

Jarkko Ruutu - Jesse Winchester - Roman Wick

At first glance, this too looks like a well-constructed NHL team, but a closer look reveals that there are cracks in the ice. Spezza and Alfredsson are so good, though, that they instantly make this set of forwards better than the Habs. However, in his first season since coming over from San Jose, Milan Michalek greeted the fans in Ottawa by laying a fresh steaming -12 +/- rating turd on center ice--his first negative rating in his career.  His points dropped precipitously as well. Hockey GMs have to start to realize that just because you put up points in Washington, San Jose, or Chicago, that doesn’t mean you are going to put up points everywhere.

On the second line, Mike Fisher married shorthanded in life, but he has to play with Dr. Alexei and Mr. Kovalev on his right side.  Dr. Alexei is still capable of flashes of greatness, but Mr. Kovalev is often mired in long stretches of indifference. Peter Regin pitched in 29 points in 75 games, which is a nice contribution for a second-liner. This group is capable of generating a second scoring option, but as Kovalev goes, so does this line and I don’t think he’s capable of doing it much this year--and surely not for 82 consecutive games.

Nick Foligno, Chris Kelly, and Chris Neil do a yeoman's job on the third line. Jarkko Ruutu is on the fourth line--can somebody tell me why this guy is still in the league? Winchester and Wick are fourth liners.

If Michalek and Kovalev show up, this could be the best line of forwards in the Northeast, but I am guessing that they will each show up for about 20 games this year, which is not quite a full season.

Buffalo Sabres

Thomas Vanek - Derek Roy - Jason Pominville

Jochen Hecht - Tim Connolly - Mike Grier

Tyler Ennis - Paul Gaustad - Patrick Kaleta

Nathan Gerbe - Rob Niedermeyer - Drew Stafford

This is what I call a big-boy lineup. The Sabres have what you would want in a set of forwards--they’ve got a big-name sniper that can pitch in as much as 40 goals, they’ve got a center who can get him the puck, and even a winger on the other side that's not much of a slouch. The second line is centered by a guy that can find the back of the net and some wingers that aren’t strangers to the net themselves. The third line is young, but has already demonstrated that they know how to get the rubber past the goalie as well. The fourth line is centered by a guy who has made a career of being one of the best fourth line centers in the game and also pitching in more than a handful of goals himself, while getting limited ice time. When you consider that these guys historically play within their system and are often very solid defensively, the pieces are here for a very silent-but-deadly set of forwards.

Vanek gets the press, because he’s the sniper, but don’t discount the contributions by Roy, who has put up 81, 70, and 69 points in the last three years. Pominville has strung together three straight seasons of 20 goals and Hecht found twine 21 times last year. Connolly had almost 50 assists last year, to boot. Ennis only played 10 games last year, but he had 9 points in those games! Gaustad may reach 30 points on the third line. To be able to get 80 goals from a first line, 60 from a second line, 40 from a third line, and 20 from a fourth line is about as good as a team in the Salary Cap Era can hope for--Buffalo’s forwards might be able to make that happen.

Boston Bruins

Marco Sturm - Marc Savard - Nathan Horton

Milan Lucic - David Krejci - Mark Recchi

Blake Wheeler - Patrice Bergeron - Michael Ryder

David Paille - Tyler Seguin - Shawn Thornton

On talent alone, the Bruins are pretty tough to beat, especially down the middle. Savard was injured last year and the Bruins appeared to suffer across the board. Now Savard is back and they have also added Nathan Horton, who is often injured himself, but is a legit winger to add some scoring power along the wings to support the depth down the middle. Tyler Seguin is listed as the fourth line center, but he isn’t really a fourth-liner, but we can’t assume that he’s going to come into the league and be better than Savard, Krejci, and Bergeron.

Ed. Note: It appears that Savard might still be suffering from post-concussion syndrome, and will be out for a while.  As of right now, Tyler Seguin has a good chance at being the replacement for however long Savard will be out.

Savard may be able to set Horton up for a big season (again, health issues aside)--Sturm will ride along for lots of points. Lucic will also get to ride shotgun for Krejci setting up Recchi--although it’s hard to say how much Recchi has left.

Blake Wheeler may take a few steps forward, he pitched in 38 points last year and he’s at that age where a lot of guys take their career to the next level. Ryder, Paille, and Thornton aren’t exciting but they aren’t going to hurt you that much either. Ryder can even add some scoring on the third line.

The question is whether or not their two dangerous wingers (Horton and Recchi) can stay healthy and contribute. It will also be interesting to see if Seguin gets some PP time as well. Overall, we are going to assume that Savard is going to come back to form and boost the Bruins to the best group of forwards in the Northeast.


Northeast Division Forwards Ranking
1. Boston Bruins
2. Buffalo Sabres
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Montreal Canadiens
5. Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL Preview: Atlantic Division Forwards

New York Islanders

Matt Moulson - John Tavares - Kyle Okposo

Josh Bailey - Rob Schremp - Blake Comeau

Jon Sim - Frans Nielsen - Trent Hunter

Trevor Gillies - Doug Weight - Zenon Konopka

The Islanders are a team with no more than a top line. And really, it’s not much of a top line…I’m sure Scott Gordon can make something happen with these guys since he’s been coaching for two years in the NHL and is very consistent(ly bad). Ok, so maybe this won’t be the year for the Isles, and the same may go next year. But rebuilding a team is tough, and you have to live with a few shortcomings…or many shortcomings. The top line is very young and showed they know how to stir a defense when on top of their game last year. The only problem is they have no history of repeating that. 2010-11 will be the year that tests whether the top line is or isn’t for real. Players like Okposo and Moulson need to continue last year’s production or Gordon won’t be afraid to throw in replacements. Bailey, Shremp, Comeau, Nielson, and Hunter all showed signs of talent and really could fit anywhere on this roster. In fact if you put this roster through a random generator, I bet you’d come out with roughly the same output. They will be the team that whoops up on a high seed a couple times this year because of the consistent lines, but they most definitely will be at the bottom of this division…again.

New York Rangers
Vaclav Prospal - Erik Christensen - Marian Gaborik

Alexander Frolov - Brandon Dubinsky - Ryan Callahan
Sean Avery - Chris Drury - Todd White
Brandon Prust - Artem Anisimov - Derek Boogaard

The Rangers have been in limbo for the last 15 years and are due to challenge the division leader. Their top line will be great, and their second will be as good as the Isle’s first. Their third is perfect and their fourth is just plain scary (Boogeyman). The only problem is you never know what happens within the Rangers’ locker room (apart from Boogaard getting snapped in the ass with a wet towel). I don’t think the coach has real control over his team and I think his team is trying to figure him out, without success. Torts is such a strange fella (probably the guy on the other end of the wet towel). He will flip out, and he will sit with all his Torty looks:

These looks are what make the lines for the Rangers so unpredictable. When Torts stops shuffling lines and “teaching his players a lesson” the Rangers will level out into a strong competitor.

New Jersey Devils

Zach Parise - Travis Zajac – Ilya Kovalchuk
Patrik Elias – Jason Arnott – Jamie Langenbrunner
Brian Rolston – Dainius Zubrus – David Clarkson
Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond – Rod Pelley – Vladimir Zharkov

The rise of the Devils is always as scary as their top lines, and this year will be deadly. Parise has proven he is the young foundation of this team and Zajac will forever be at his side. With last year’s addition of Kovalchuk, and the possibility of Kovy moving over to the right to accommodate Parise, line 1 could be in the top 5 of the NHL. They have sufficient depth that was proven by big performances last year by Zubrus and occasionally Clarkson. The comeback of Arnott will solidify the defensive side of the game. Expect a rock solid performance that could land them in the top spot in this division.

Philadelphia Flyers
Scott Hartnell - Mike Richards - Nikolai Zherdev

James van Riemsdyk - Jeff Carter - Claude Giroux
Ville Leino - Danny Briere - Ian Laperriere
Darroll Powe - Blair Betts - Daniel Carcillo

The Flyers loss of Gagne may just work with the addition of Zherdev. Zherdev’s second attempt at the NHL could pay off after having a pretty good season in the KHL (52 games, 13 goals, 26 assists, and 39 points). The youngsters of years past should be primed enough to fulfill the roles they are expected to. If Hartnell gains back what he once had, the outlook for Philly could be a repeat with a better ending. Their depth is near perfection, and the only thing they don’t have is a forward who we know will put up a point-per-game, though at least two forwards certainly could. The possible addition of Guerin (signed to a tryout) would top the tank. Their depth is the strongest in the division.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Chris Kunitz - Sidney Crosby - Mike Comrie

Eric Tangradi - Jordan Staal - Evgeni Malkin
Tyler Kennedy - Max Talbot - Pascal Dupuis
Matt Cooke - Mike Rupp - Arron Asham

Can the Penguins do it again? It’s hard to say. We all know they have two of the best in the league, and their power play is superb (though less now without Gonchar). They do have a new top-line right wing that we all don’t believe in. Comrie has proven he’s not what everyone hoped he’d be. I will be upset however if he’s the target of high expections just because he can occasionally fumble around with a pass from Sid. I know the Penguins try to create depth, but the truth of the matter is we’d like to see Malkin and Crosby together. It’s like taking Backstrom away from Ovechkin; no one needs to see that. Kunitz has proven he was a fluke in Anaheim and will continue his sub-Saku numbers here in the Pitts. I do like the last two lines because they play the way the team needs them to play. With the addition of Asham, I think the fourth line will get a little more time than most others in the league and it will show on the scoreboard. Look for them to squeak out a top spot in the division.

This division is a crap shoot for the top three, and I may even be inclined to say four, but the only thing I can say for sure is the Islanders will hold strong at number 5.

Atlantic Division Forwards Ranking 
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Philadelphia Flyers
3. New Jersey Devils
4. New York Rangers
5. New York Islanders

Free Agent Fiesta: Blog Cosby's Picks

Needless to say I think the signings this year have been pretty lame, but since I feel I should point out the ones that show less lameness than the rest, here are my picks:

Favorite
Jaroslav Halak to the Blues
The Blues saw the capabilities of Halak in the playoffs, and they know how Mason played when Nashville was a playoff contender. This is a clear steal for a team that was in need of a change. Mason is a good goalie, but he didn't have enough, and his age is climbing beyond repair. Halak is young, shows great talent and very little sign of Raycroftism. This pickup will aid the ever long struggles of the Blues and their hopes for becoming a playoff contender by giving them a goaltending foundation that can easily serve them for many years. I have no clue why Montreal seems to think Auld and Price are going to satisfy them, but I guess sometimes you just make bad decisions and then you have to live with them.

Least Favorite
Christopher Higgins to the Panthers
Seriously? Has no one figured out that this guy's talent has faded with every move? Sure he had 52 points a few seasons ago, but he hasn't begun to show that anywhere else. The difference between Higgins and a player like Saku Koivu is that Koivu consistantly puts up 50-60 points season after season...Higgins did it once by miracle, or maybe he had a little help from Mr. Koivu, Streit, and Markov...Oh, yeah those guys. He's getting to the age that your hoping for a Tim Thomas breakout.

Dark-Horse Signing
P.A. Parenteau to the Islanders
I'm not sure why the Ducks like to make it a habit of trading away promising prospects, but here's one who's never been given a chance. Sure he's a 9th round pick, but he has shown great numbers in the AHL over the years and has great stickhandling skills that can aid a team in need of something. Finally he's on a team that will play him and I think you may all be amazed at what he will do this year on the second line of the Islanders...yes that's my prediction.

Free Agent Fiesta: Forsberg's Foot's Picks

That was a strange title to write. The double possessive.

While the free agent period isn't over (thanks, Kovalchuk), there have been plenty of signings to talk about, analyze, and weep over(sorry about the Boogeyman, Matteau). Here are my picks:

Favorite
Anton Volchenkov to the Devils
Sure, there were flashier blueliners out there that signed for similar money (Gonchar, Hamhuis, Martin), but Lou made Anton a deal he couldn't refuse. Out of all the big free agents on the blueline, I expect Volchenkov to have the most pronounced effect on his new team. While the departure of Paul Martin in Swampland is notable, the guy only played 22 games last year. So basically, this was a team carried by Johnny freakin' Oduya until the trade deadline. Now they add a tough as nails, shot blocking, hard-hitting, vodka-guzzling maniac. The Sister Banger is very happy about this signing. Very happy indeed.

Least Favorite
Sergei Gonchar to the Senators
Maybe I'm being a bit biased here. I'll come clean. I'm not a Sergei Gonchar fan by any stretch of the imagination. And while his playoff performance this past summer was pathetic by anybody's standards, that's not why I'm choosing this to be the worst deal made so far. My biggest problem with this deal is that the Senators are now stuck with a 3-year, $5.5 million dollar per year deal with a rapidly aging defenseman when there were better options out there. Gonchar was given a no-trade clause, and since he was over 35 when he signed the contract, the cap hit remains throughout the life of the contract even if he retires or is waived. Younger, more well-rounded players like Paul Martin or Dan Hamhuis would have been better options.

Dark-Horse Signing
Nikolai Zherdev to the Flyers
Yeah, he's an ultra-talented Russian. Yes, there have been concerns about his work ethic, consistency, and attitude. Yes, he fled the NHL to spend a year in the KHL. Still, the $2 million dollar deal allows the flyers to add a creative and immensely-talented scorer in their top 9 with little risk because it's only a 1 year deal. $2 million is a low figure for a young guy who put up 61 and 58 points in his last 2 years in the NHL.

Stanley Cup Preview

Once again, a few comments on the round that was and on to the round that will be. We didn’t learn too much in the previous round. Many thought the Blackhawks were going to beat the Sharks, and they did—winning four very tight games. Chicago keeps rolling on two dynamic scoring lines, steady defense, and a strong goaltender. In the east, many expected Philadelphia to continue its run right through Montreal—and they did.

Stanley Cup Final:
(2) Chicago Blackhawks (12-4) [1.24 5on5, 22.6% PP, 86.6% PK] vs. (7) Philadelphia Flyers (12-5) [1.39 5on5, 20.7% PP, 87.0% PK]

Chicago has solidified themselves as the best team in the NHL throughout this season, with a very impressive regular season and flashes of dominance in the playoffs. The forwards, led by Jonathan Toews (7G, 19A, +4) and Patrick Kane (7G, 13A, +2) are numbers 1 and 3 in playoff points (although they combined for only one goal against San Jose). The team can score from the blueline as well, and also play steady defense, led by Duncan Keith (1G, 9A, +3) and Brent Seabrook (3G, 6A, +8). Antti Niemi (12W, 2.33GAA, .921 Sv%) has been very good. The Blackhawks also have a second line of punch that the Flyers will have to deal with, including Patrick Sharp (7G, 9A, +3), Marian Hossa (2G, 9A, +8), and a surprising showing from Dustin Byfuglien (8G, 2A, -3). Chicago should be able to get goals and their defense is good enough to stop any rush that Philadelphia throws at them. If Seabrook, Keith, and the boys can stop the Flyers forecheck and Niemi plays like a Conn-Smythe winner, this will be a quick series and the Flyers will be forever known as that team as “who was that 7 seed that made a run in 2010?”

The seven-seed underdog Flyers continue their improbable run. The Flyers have found a way to get better throughout the playoffs and have since added their top goal scorer and their best penalty killer. Concerns about long minutes to a strong set of blueliners are the only concerns about this team’s health. The Flyers have regained sniper Jeff Carter (4G, 1A, +1) and sparkplug Ian Laperriere (0G, 1A, -2) and also survived without Simon Gagne (7G, 3A, +6). But the story of the Flyers has been the emergence of Mike Richards (6G, 15A, +6) as a force to be reckoned with, Claude Giroux’s (8G, 9A, +10) inauguration into an undeniable NHL superstar of the future (if not today), and Danny Briere’s reemergence (9G, 9A, +4). On the back end, Michael Leighton (6W, 1.45 GAA, .948 Sv%) continues his fairy tale run through the playoffs. Not to be outdone, the Flyers has been the steady of their top four defensemen, Chris Pronger (4G, 10A, +2), Matt Carle (0G, 10A, +10), Kimmo Timonen (0G, 8A, +6), and Braydon Coburn (1G, 2A, +7), who have kept their goaltenders workload in check. With Carter back healthy, scoring depth at forward, shut-down defense, and the steady Leighton in net, there isn’t anything that can stop the Flyers, except for mistakes on the back end and “beating themselves”.

All in all, the pundits have made it very clear that the Flyers don’t stand a chance. The Blackhawks have too much scoring depth, strong defense, and outstanding goaltending. While this is true, it’s also true about the Flyers. In fact the Flyers have three scoring lines, whereas Chicago has two. Keith and Seabrook are outstanding, but so are Pronger and Carle. Niemi has been outstanding, but Leighton has been even better. The Blackhawks have a dynamic power play and a shutdown Penalty Kill—so do the Flyers. The Blackhawks have the ability to exhibit a relentless forecheck—so do the Flyers.

Thus, I don’t see this as a landslide series—I see this as an outstanding series that could rejuvenate hockey in America. If you peel back the onion on hockey superstars (Ovechkin and Crosby are the obvious guys), Jonathan Toews and Mike Richards need to be in this conversation—one of those two will be instrumental in winning Olympic Gold and will have captained a team to the Stanley Cup title in the same year—this deserves more recognition.

The team that wins this series will be able to solve the other team’s goalie—and the way to beat Leighton and Niemi has been to get second-chance opportunities through a dynamic forecheck and relentless play in front of the crease that frustrates the other team’s defense. Chicago is more suspect to a relentless forecheck, based on a young core of defensemen that have made a lot of turnovers. While Byfuglien has gotten a lot of press for his in front of the crease antics, the Flyers have more than one guy capable and willing of going in front of the crease. Similarly, it will be interesting to see if Byfuglien is as prolific playing against Pronger.

Thus, I can’t believe I’m about to say this…

Flyers in 5.

Once again, a few comments on the round that was and on to the round that will be. First and foremost, we’ve learned one thing—a hockey playoff round, moreso than any other playoff round is all about winning four games. No matter how effectively you win 3, you have to win that fourth one. Hockey is about bounces and luck and just as easily as the bounces can go your way, they can just as quickly turn the other way. Montreal has now outlasted Washington and Pittsburgh after being down 3-1. Goaltending issues permeate from Washington and Pittsburgh. Philadelphia outlasted Boston after being down 3-0 for only the third time in NHL History. Out west, Chicago got it rolling over Vancouver and San Jose finally got an inch of top-line production, plus a mile of second-line production to make it to the Western Final for the second time in history.

Western Final:

(1) San Jose Sharks (8-4) [.95 5on5, 19.3% PP, 84.2% PK] vs. (2) Chicago Blackhawks (8-4) [1.05 5on5, 21.6% PP, 88.7% PK]

San Jose remains the enigma of the playoffs. The verdict has come in on the big three Dany Heatley (2G, 8A, -3), Patrick Marleau (3G, 4A, -1) and Joe Thornton (3G, 8A, -6)—these guys are not playoff players. After averaging 1.05 ppg and a combined +52 in the regular season, the trio has checked in at .90 ppg and a combined -10 in the playoffs (let it be known that the last series against the Red Wings saw an increased production from the trio—so baby steps in the right direction, I guess). The tight checking in the playoffs has spelled doom for the finesse trio. San Jose has gotten their production from a set of gritty forwards Ryan Clowe (2G, 8A, +5) and Joe Pavelski (9G, 6A, +7). The blueliners led by Dan Boyle (2G, 7A, +1) have been steady in front of Evgeni Nabokov (8W, 2.43GAA, .907 Sv%). San Jose needs to maintain its steady production from their second line of forwards, blue liners, and Nabokov. If they are able to get all of those things and also add a dynamic first line, there isn’t much that Chicago can do to stop them.

Chicago remains the scary potential team of the playoffs. The forwards, led by Patrick Kane (7G, 8A, +1) and Jonathan Toews (6G, 14A, +4) are as good as any two forwards left in the playoffs. The team can score from the blueline as well, and also play steady defense, led by Duncan Keith (1G, 5A, -1) and Brent Seabrook (2G, 6A, +5). Antti Niemi (8W, 2.57GAA, .909 Sv%) has been both good and bad, but overall very good. As if this isn’t enough to get the Sharks shaking in the boots (read: choking), they also have to deal with a steady dose of second line scorers, including Patrick Sharp (5G, 9A, +2), Marian Hossa (2G, 8A, +5), and a surprising showing from Dustin Byfuglien (4G, 2A, -3). Chicago should be able to get goals and their defense is good enough to stop any rush that San Jose throws at them. However, Niemi has shown that he can be beat. If Niemi plays like a Conn-Smythe winner, this will be a quick series and the Sharks will have an even-tougher time beating down their “choking legacy.”

All in all, I expect more of the same—San Jose’s top line will contribute sparingly, but their second line will carry the play. On the other hand, Chicago is going to get scoring from both lines. Both defenses are good enough to stop an offensive surge. Nabokov has been a little bit more steady than Niemi, but Niemi has shown more of an upside. Thus, I expect Chicago will win the series in six games, Niemi will give one away, but he will also steal one. The headline coming out of this series will be how the Sharks lost and didn’t get production from Heatley, Thornton, and Marleau.

(7) Philadelphia Flyers (8-4) [1.29 5on5, 21.7% PP, 83.6% PK] vs. (8) Montreal Canadiens (8-6) [1.04 5on5, 21.6% PP, 85.5% PK]

In an incredibly rare situation, a seven-seed will have home ice in the playoffs (the only way a seven ever gets home ice is if they make the conference finals and also if an 8 makes it too). The Flyers got to the Finals in typically Flyers fashion, by looking like world-beaters one day (destroying New Jersey and winning four straight against Boston to come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win) and looked complacent on other games. To be fair, the Flyers are dealing with some injuries (but who isn’t in the playoffs). The Flyers are without sniper Jeff Carter (2G, 1A, -3) and sparkplug Ian Laperriere(0G, 1A, -1) and played several games without Simon Gagne (4G, 3A, +3), who has returned to the lineup and then some. Philadelphia’s forwards have been led by Daniel Briere (7G, 8A, +3) who seems to be finding the net like it’s 2005, Captain Mike Richards (5G, 12A, +2), and newcomer Claude Giroux (5G, 6A, +3). A key story for the Flyers has been the steady of their top four defensemen, Chris Pronger (4G, 7A, +3), Matt Carle (0G, 7A, +7), Kimmo Timonen (0G, 5A, +1), and Braydon Coburn (0G, 1A, +1), who have kept their goaltenders workload in check. In goal, the Flyers have gotten steady play from the injured Brian Boucher (6W, 2.33 GAA, .915 Sv%) and his back-up Michael Leighton (2W, 1.55 GAA, .943 Sv%) didn’t skip a beat after being called into game 5 (which was elimination game), game 6 (which was an elimination game), and game 7 (which was an elimination game). With Gagne back healthy, scoring depth at forward, shut-down defense, and the steady Leighton in net, there isn’t anything that can stop the Flyers, except the Flyers…which they’ve demonstrated that they just don’t show up at time.

The Canadiens story is the story of Jaroslav Halak (8W, 2.42 GAA, .933 Sv%). He’s been sensational and he’s looked at more rubber than the Michelin Man. The Canadiens not only beat the best team in the east, and arguably the second-best team in the east in 7 games, but they did much of it with injuries on defense and virtually only one guy scoring goals. Mike Cammalleri (12G, 6A, -1) has been the one offensive bright spot for the Habs. Meanwhile, Hal Gill (0G, 1A, +2) and Josh Gorges (0G, 1A, +1) have shown that a team can win any game if they don’t give up any good shots. Montreal’s team defensive system makes them tough to crack, especially if they get up early. However, a team that isn’t prone to complete defensive lapses (read: Pittsburgh and Washington), should not get down against the Habs if they can stop Camalleri. That said, if Halak continues his hot streak, a team may only need four goals to win this series.

When push comes to shove, Philadelphia has more scoring depth than the Penguins, and nearly as many goal scorers as Washington. However, Philadelphia’s defense is far superior to that of Washington and Pittsburgh. Michael Leighton has stabilized this team. I’ve said this once, but I’ll say it again. Montreal will be outplayed in this series. Halak may be able to steal one game, but Pronger and Carle will shut down Camalleri et al., which means Montreal isn’t going to get the goal-scoring that they need to get up early to trap-to-win. Philadelphia in 5.