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Monday, January 11, 2010

Developing Player Value: PPM/15, Addendum

I'm making up for some lost time by making a couple of brief posts, the first of course being Doc Emrick screaming (I really should save the best for last).  So, after chucking my PPM/15 post around the blogosphere, and getting some solid feedback, I had a few conclusions to make:

1.) Referee "homerism" is a relative wash, because of the equal number of home-away games.
2.) I considered adjusting the degree a player hurt their team by recognizing the different PP/PK percentages among the teams, but then decided that those percentages are team-oriented and would actually pull us away from evaluating the individual player.
3.) When analyzing and comparing individual players, for this metric and its presentation I should separate defensemen and forwards, as defensemen on average are called for more penalties.
4.) I will order the players with similar PPM/15 with preference to rank higher (or lower) those who played more games, because they either helped or hurt their teams more.
4.) The acronym PPMp15 is a bit more presentable as PPM/15.

So, let's make some change...

Top 6 Forwards PPM/15, 2009-10
1. Dustin Brown, Kings  .48
2. Zach Parise, Devils  .40
3. Matt Bradley, Capitals  .35
4. Cal Clutterbuck, Wild  .35
5. Devin Setoguchi, Sharks  .35
6. Paul Kariya, Blues  .33

Bottom 6 Forwards
252. Scott Parse, Kings  -.25
253. Jarret Stoll, Kings  -.25
254. Jeff Carter, Flyers -.25
255. Chris Kelly, Senators  -.28
256. Ales Kotalik, Rangers  -.30
257. Ethan Moreau, Oilers  -.30

Top 7 Defensemen
1. Kris Letang, Penguins  .20
2. Francois Beauchemin, Maple Leafs  .10
3. Keith Yandle, Coyotes  .10
4. Tyler Myers, Sabres  .10
5. Andy Greene, Devils  .10
6. James Wisniewski, Ducks  .10
7. Wade Redden, Rangers  .10

Bottom 6 Defensemen
158. Craig Rivet, Sabres  -.33
159. Aaron Ward, Hurricanes  -.33
160. Kent Huskins, Sharks  -.33
161. Cam Barker, Blackhawks  -.40
162. Hal Gill, Canadiens  -.43
163. Nick Boynton, Ducks  -.45

...and as you can probably see by the difference between the leaders, it is definitely better to separate forwards and defensemen.  But it's worth noting that a penalty is a penalty, and even though defensemen tend to get called more, it doesn't hurt the team any less.

Kudos to Tyler Myers, for playing solid offensive hockey and reducing the damage he does on the other end (as a rookie, no less). Further Kudos to guys like Cal Clutterbuck and Dustin Brown, who have found ways to be physical and not hurt their teams (and notice I'm not saying that they are clean players).

P.S.  Thanks to commenter Simon; his suggestion of including major (non-fighting) penalties adjusted our top forwards list, dropping Tuomo Ruutu to a PPM/15 of .28, as well as a handful of other PPM/15's not on these lists.  Comments/critiques are always welcome!

4 comments:

  1. Just curious, since you mentioned in the former PPMp15 post that you included only minor penalties, how about major penalties that aren't fighing majors? Penalties that result in a 5 minute penalty kill/power play for that player's team that is. In a way these penalties, although not as usual, can result in more than one goal during the PP/PK and can turn a game around much more than a minor one.

    Great blog anyway, for people like me who loves math and hockey, it's just awesome!

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  2. That particular data has been a bear to come across, in particular because the Behind the Net data on penalties drawn doesn't identify anything beyond minors, and it's hard to assess drawn penalties without that information. Can certainly use it to subtract from a person's PPM/15, though. For what it's worth, of all the 252 players committing majors last year, only twelve committed the kind you mention, and none more than once. I'll adjust it as much as I can. In the meantime, thanks for the comment and compliment, and we'll keep delivering!

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  3. Check that, I mean 252 players committing majors this year, only twelve committed that kind of penalty.

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  4. Great post. I did the same analysis for my team for the first 40 games this season for the same reasons you did: because taking and drawing penalties is an important and generally overlooked aspect of a players' game. I separated forwards and defensemen for the same reason you did and threw out coincidental penalties for the same reason you did. I called this "penalty differential".

    In my opinion, if the Thrashers replaced just one of their penalty monger forwards with a responsible penalty player, it would translate to 46 fewer penalty differentials per season which would produce about 8 goal differentials over the season (assuming 17% conversion) and win the team 2 or 3 extra games per season. You can find the post on my blog thrashersrecaps.blogspot.com
    -Thrashers Recaps

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